Climate Change Research Program Japanese

Core Project4. Developing Visions for a Low Carbon Society and Integrated Analysis of Climate Policies

Research Plan > Core Research Projects > 2010 Research Results

[2010 Research Results]

Many organizations are engaged in activities to work towards the future stabilization of our climate. Discussions are taking place around the world on international approaches to climate change mitigation, methods to reach long-term climate stabilization targets and ways to achieve a low-carbon society by 2050. The objective of our research is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of such climate mitigation strategies, and to feed the results of our research back into the policy making community and the general public.

Key areas to be addressed for achieving a sustainable low-carbon society

Realizing a target to reduce GHG emissions by half by 2050 is an international challenge and the key is to achieve a low-carbon society (LCS) in Asia which has a growing economy and diversified background. In this region, countries are urged to directly proceed to a new social foundation which leads to a LCS based on sustainable and low-carbon technologies, instead of following conventional resources- and energy-intensive economic development patterns pursued by the developed countries.
In this project, a vision towards a LCS is developed considering country-specific environmental and developmental concerns, and pathways to realize the above vision are quantified along with concrete countermeasures, using back-casting methodology, in collaboration with researchers in Asian countries such as China, India, Thailand and Indonesia.

LCS scenarios and actions in Asia

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LCS scenarios and actions in Asia

Post-2012 international framework for climate change mitigation

A series of international negotiations on the post-2012 multilateral framework have been conducted since 2007, initially aiming at reaching an agreement at COP15 in 2009. However, at COP15, only a political agreement called "Copenhagen Accord" was taken note of. In 2010, at COP16 held in Cancun, Mexico, the parties succeeded in settling issues such as funding, technology transfer and preservation of the forest of developing countries (REDD), and reached a set of agreements on their procedures. Meanwhile, more critical agendas such as the emissions reduction target of each country were postponed to COP17. This study makes a comparative analysis of the national climate change policies and policy making processes of major countries, namely the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and India.

Framework of the study

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Framework of the study

Achieving Japan's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reduction target in 2020 (25% reduction compared to the 1990 level)

We contributed to the work of the Mid- and Long-term Roadmap Subcommittee, Global Environmental Committee, Central Environmental Council organized by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, by estimating what features characterized a 25% GHG reduction target in 2020 compared to the 1990 level in Japan, using a bottom-up model.
In the commercial, residential and transport sectors, large amounts of CO2 reduction will be necessary to achieve this target compared to the levels in 2008, and the reductions made in these sectors will account for around 80% of the total GHG reductions in Japan. Thus, it is important to implement mitigation measures in our daily living. We also evaluated additional investments that were required for introducing these countermeasures and economic impacts.

Features of the 25% GHG reduction target in 2020 in Japan provided to the Mid- and Long-term Roadmap Subcommittee

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Features of the 25% GHG reduction target in 2020 in Japan provided to the Mid- and Long-term Roadmap Subcommittee

Note 1) This analysis shows the sector-wise features of a 25% GHG emissions reduction in 2020 compared to the 1990 level by considering three levels of domestic reduction efforts: 15%, 20% and 25%. In the case of 15% and 20% reductions, it is assumed that the resting amount to 25% will be achieved by other measures such as international reduction efforts.
Note 2) The fixed technology case is based on the assumption that the energy share and energy efficiency in each sector will be fixed at the same level as in the year 2005. The reference case is based on the assumption that the energy efficiency of standard technologies will be improved.
Note 3) CO2 emissions from the power sector are allocated to each sector in proportion to the amount of electricity consumption in each sector.

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