Press Release EN日本語要約Publication (Friedlingstein et al., 2024)

Headline: No clear signs of peak in global fossil CO₂ emissions yet

• Global CO₂ emissions from fossil use are projected to rise 0.8% in 2024 (range -0.3% to 1.9%), reaching 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ (GtCO₂)¹.Despite progress in clean energy, growth in natural gas and oil use drives global fossil emissions up. Coal emissions are also projected to increase, but more marginally. The projected growth in 2024 fossil emissions comes on top of a 1.4% growth in 2023 emissions, and further delays the anticipated and necessary peak in global emissions.
• Global CO₂ emissions from land-use change remain high at a projected 4.2 GtCO₂ in 2024, but they have decreased every decade since the 1990s, and in particular in the past decade (-20%). Decreasing emissions from deforestation and increasing removals from reforestation and afforestation both contributed to the decrease in land-use change emissions, although removals stagnated in the past decade.
• Total CO₂ emissions – the sum of fossil and land-use change emissions – have plateaued in the past decade, and are projected to be 41.6 GtCO₂ in 2024. The plateau during 2014-2023 follows a decade of strong growth in total emissions of 2% per year on average during 2004-2013, indicating progress in tackling climate change, but insufficient to put global emissions on a downward trajectory.
• The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels. Total CO₂ emissions are responsible for the rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentration (on average +2.5 parts per million over the past decade), with the response of the CO₂ sinks to climate conditions modulating the exact value each year, especially on land.

¹ Global fossil CO₂ emissions include the cement carbonation sink.