Climate Change Research Program Japanese

Core Project3. Assessment of climate risk based on integrated climate, impact, and land use models

Research Plan > Core Research Projects > 2006 Research Results
[2006 Research Results]

How likely are we to experience warmer days and nights in the near future (i.e. the next 20 years)?

As a preliminary analysis into near future climate change prediction, we conducted 10 experiments with different initial conditions in order to predict the frequency of extreme climate events. We found that, if no large-scale volcanic eruptions occur, chances are high that over the next 25 years the number of warm nights is going to increase over almost every land mass in the world, even if the influence of decadal natural variability is taken into account.
Predicting the frequency of warm nights (defined as nights in which the minimum daily temperature is higher than it was in 95% of the summer days from 1951 to 1970)

(click to enlarge)
Predicting the frequency of warm nights (defined as nights in which the minimum daily temperature is higher than it was in 95% of the summer days from 1951 to 1970)

These panels compare the predicted average increase in the frequency of warm nights in the 10 runs to the averages from 1951 to 1970.
Predicting the frequency of warm nights (defined as nights in which the minimum daily temperature is higher than it was in 95% of the summer days from 1951 to 1970)

These panels show the number of runs that predicted an increase in the frequency of warm nights, which is an indication of our certainty in this prediction (taking into account decadal natural variability).

Will we be able to get the water we need, when we need it, in the 21st century?

We ran a simulation of the world’s water resources with the Integrated Model for the Assessment of Global Water Resources (right) developed by the National Institute for Environmental Studies and the University of Tokyo. (The simulation uses social, economic, and greenhouse gas emission factors from the IPCC SRES A1B scenario.)
 
Integrated Model for the Assessment of Global Water Resources
Integrated Model for the Assessment of Global Water Resources
Changes in the number of people who live in areas that lack sufficient water resources
Changes in the number of people who live in areas that lack sufficient water resources

The above image shows the changes in the number of people who live in areas that lack sufficient water resources. In the A1B scenario, the world’s population is predicted to increase up to 2050 and then start to decrease. We found that the number of people who live in regions where water resources are scarce will increase along with the population leading up to 2050, and the situation is not expected to show immediate improvement in the latter half of the century.

How much carbon can plants in east Asia uptake through photosynthesis?

Terrestrial vegetation, such as trees, produces biomass from atmospheric CO2 through the process of photosynthesis. Knowing the specific amount of CO2 involved is useful information not only for the forestry and industry, but also for people who design climate change mitigation strategies. By using an ecosystem model called Sim-CYCLE, we were able to map the photosynthetic productivity of the East Asian region.
the current net primary productivity (NPP) of East Asia evaluated by Sim-CYCLE

(click to enlarge)
the current net primary productivity (NPP) of East Asia evaluated by Sim-CYCLE

The above image shows the current net primary productivity (NPP) of East Asia estimated by Sim-CYCLE. From this image, we can see that forests in the warmer regions in the south and west of Japan are able to uptake a larger amount of CO2 than interior grasslands and northern forests.
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