Climate Change Research Program Japanese

Core Research Projects

(1) Long-term variation mechanisms of greenhouse gas concentrations and their regional characteristics (Project Leader: H. Mukai)

 We will use observational data to clarify long-term flux variations, concentrations, and spatial distributions of sources and sinks. This will assist in making future projections of greenhouse gas concentrations that take into consideration the feedback effects of climatic changes and material cycles in the natural world. Through a wide-area observation network that covers land, oceans, and air in the Asia and Oceania regions, we will clarify the spatial and temporal distribution of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, fluorocarbons, etc.) and related tracer chemicals and their long-term variations in flux. By doing this, we hope to discover regional characteristics and identify the mechanisms behind the variations in concentrations. In particular, we will do the following.

a. Make use of aircraft and scheduled freight ships to create Japan's largest atmospheric observation network in order to collect precise and highly reliable data for determining the regional dynamics of sources and sinks.

b. Observe potential tracers such as oxygen and isotopes over the long term to detect changes in the global carbon budget. Improve upon concentration prediction techniques through a better understanding of material cycles and their variations/patterns.

c. Undertake detailed, region-based flux observations of the Pacific Ocean and observe mass transfer rates by process in Asian terrestrial ecosystems in order to come to an understanding of flux mechanisms in the greenhouse gas balance and improve the reliability of global flux data.

 • 2006 Research Results
 • 2007 Research Results
 • 2008-2009 Research Results
 • 2010 Research Results

(2) Greenhouse gas observation from space and use of the observations to estimate global carbon flux distribution (Project Leader: T. Yokota)
 > Link to GOSAT Project Website

 We will use data from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) that Japan plans to launch to derive column concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, etc. We will develop and improve gas concentration retrieval methods and verify and validate the results. Furthermore, we will apply a combination of satellite and ground-based measurement data to inverse models in order to reduce errors in regional carbon flux estimations and improve the temporal and spatial resolution of fluxes. This will assist us in determining the distribution of the carbon fluxes globally. In particular, we will do the following.

a. Develop data retrieval methods, applicable under various atmospheric conditions, using near infrared radiances measured by satellites, and verify and validate the retrieved results.

b. Obtain more precise estimates of the distribution of the global carbon flux by refining the temporal and spatial resolution of inverse models by estimating fluxes on a monthly basis for a total of 64 regions around the world.

c. Reveal regional differences and seasonal changes in carbon fluxes obtained with the inverse models we develop.

 The above research and "Developing, maintaining, and operating systems to process observational data from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)" constitute the NIES GOSAT Project, which is a part of the joint GOSAT Project involving by the Ministry of the Environment, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, and NIES.

 • 2006 Research Results
 • 2007 Research Results
 • 2008 Research Results
 • 2009 Research Results
 • 2010 Research Results
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(3) Assessment of climate risk based on integrated climate, impact, and land use models (Project Leader: S. Emori)

 We will develop and make integrated use of highly reliable climate, impact, terrestrial ecosystem, and land use models. Over the short- to medium-term, we will investigate adaptive measures and forest sink countermeasures based on predictions of climate change and its impacts. Over the long-term, we will contribute to discussions on climate stabilization targets that incorporate the uncertainty of climate-carbon cycle feedback and climate sensitivity. In this way, we aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of the risks of climate change. In particular, we will do the following.

a. Upgrade and improve climate, impact, terrestrial ecosystem, and land use models and create reciprocal links among them.

b. Quantify predictions of global climate change, impact, and changes in terrestrial ecosystems and land use over the next 100 years based on a number of socio-economic development scenarios and assess levels of certainty.

 • 2006 Research Results
 • 2007 Research Results
 • 2008 Research Results
 • 2009 Research Results
 • 2010 Research Results
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(4) Developing a Vision of a Low-Carbon Society and Identifying Countermeasures through Integrated Assessment (Project Leader: M. Kainuma)

 We will identify measures to achieve emission reduction targets in the medium- to long-term range and create visions/scenarios to evaluate the feasibility of such measures from spatial (Japan, Asia, the world), temporal (short- and long-term), and sociological (technology, economics, policies) perspectives. We will perform a comprehensive evaluation of climate change mitigation strategies through an analysis of the process of international negotiation and relevant policies and a quantitative assessment of the cost-effectiveness of the countermeasures. In particular, we will do the following.

a. Develop a vision that will lead Japan to a 60 to 80% reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions (compared to 1990 levels) by 2050, and analyze measures to reduce global greenhouse gases significantly by consolidating the initiatives of the world's major powers.

b. Present short- and medium-term policy options based on studies of international institutions and quantitative analyses using economic models.

c. Provide a comprehensive assessment of the long-term outlook and short-term countermeasures for Asian climate change strategies through joint research with major Asian countries (China, India, Thailand, etc.).

 • 2006 Research Results
 • 2007 Research Results
 • 2008 Research Results
 • 2009 Research Results
 • 2010 Research Results
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