Core Project4. Developing Visions for a Low Carbon Society and Integrated Analysis of Climate Policies

Research Plan > Core Research Projects > 2009 Research Results

[2009 Research Results]

Many organizations are engaged in activities to work towards the future stabilization of our climate. Discussions are taking place around the world on international approaches to climate change mitigation, methods to reach long-term climate stabilization targets and ways to achieve a low-carbon society by 2050. The objective of our research is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of such climate mitigation strategies, and to feed the results of our research back into the policy making community and the general public.

Key areas to be addressed to achieve a sustainable low-carbon society

What is the best timing for popularizing low-carbon technologies and implementing policies to achieve a low-carbon society* by 2050 in Japan? Furthermore, to what extent and in what sectors should investments be made to reach these goals? To find the answers to these questions, we carried out research described in our report "Japan Roadmaps towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)", and quantified which pathway involves the lowest total cost necessary to implement a low-carbon society.
To achieve a low-carbon society cost-effectively it is extremely important to not only improve energy efficiency, but also to decrease the costs associated with the implementation tion of countermeasures by expanding the low-carbon technology market. It is essential to make concentrated investments in low-cost countermeasures at an early stage to improve energy efficiency particularly in the residential and commercial sector by, for example, introducing energy-efficient appliances and houses with high insulation, and in the transport sector by using next generation cars such as plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles.

※ low-carbon society is a society that achieves a CO2 emissions reduction by 70% from the 1990 level.

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

"Japan Roadmaps towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs)"

Post-2012 international framework for climate change mitigation

A series of international negotiations on the post-2012 international framework have been conducted since 2007, aiming at reaching an agreement at COP15 in 2009. However, the COP15 was only able to take note of a political agreement called “Copenhagen Accord”, and all other agreements were postponed to COP16. In order to be able to reach an international agreement, it is indispensable to analyze all major countries’ national circumstances and to propose a draft that can be accepted by these countries at an international level. Thus, this study makes a comparative analysis of national climate change policies and policy making processes of major countries and economies, namely the United States, the European Union, Russia, and emerging economies (China and India).

(click to enlarge)

Economic evaluation of Japan’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reductions targets in 2020

In order to contribute to the discussions on a future framework on Climate Change, Japan's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions reductions targets in 2020 and their impacts on the Japanese economy were evaluated by using the computable general equilibrium model for Japan. In this analysis, two scenarios were considered: 1) high carbon tax scenario which imposes a carbon tax commensurate with the level of a marginal abatement cost and returns these tax revenues to household budgets based on the method of so called flat-rate benefits, and 2) low carbon tax and investment scenario which reinvests the tax revenues to supporting funds only for GHG emissions mitigation policies. Our results show that in the low carbon tax and investment scenario which has a low carbon tax ratio and a low financial burden on the citizens compared to the high carbon tax scenario, Japan will be able to achieve a GHG emissions reduction in 2020 by 25% from the 1990 level.

(click to enlarge)