Climate Change Research Program Japanese

Core Project4. Developing Visions for a Low Carbon Society and Integrated Analysis of Climate Policies

Research Plan > Core Research Projects > 2006 Research Results

[2006 Research Results]

Many organizations are engaged in activities to work towards the future stabilization of our climate. Discussions are taking place around the world on topics such as international approaches for the post-Kyoto world, ways to achieve a low carbon society by 2050, and methods to reach long term climate stabilization targets. The objective of our research is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of such climate change mitigation strategies and to feed the results of our studies back into the policy community and the general public.

Scenarios to Achieve a Low Carbon Society in Japan by 2050

By setting goals for 2050, including the required technological and social innovations (such as improvements in urban development) that need to be in place by then, we have been able to conclude that, by that time, it will be possible to achieve a high quality, low carbon society that continues to meet required service demands while still achieving a 70% reduction in carbon dioxide emission levels compared to 1990.
It is possible to reach a 70% reduction in CO2 emissions by reducing energy demand by 40 to 45% and introducing low-carbon energy on the supply side. On the demand side, large reductions in energy consumption are possible through improvements in energy efficiency, declines in energy demand due to decreases in population, and a more rational use of the energy.

LCS house in 2050 - comfortable and energy-saving house -
LCS house in 2050 - comfortable and energy-saving house -
List of countermeasures for 70% reduction of CO2 emissions (Scenario A)

(click to enlarge)

List of countermeasures for 70% reduction of CO2 emissions (Scenario A)

Post-Kyoto International Framework for Climate Change Mitigation

The Kyoto Protocol sets mandatory greenhouse gas emission targets for the 2008-2012 period. What happens after that is currently a focal point of international dialogue. Countries around the world are trying to come up with proposals for the pressing problem of what the international framework for climate change mitigation will be after 2012. Through our research, we found that the majority of proposals have tended to change over the years in response to real-world conditions.

Literature published in
Literature published in
Literature published in
Background of literature The US’s withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol lead to considered alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol. Major proposals are being raised. Comparison of proposals became popular. Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005, and proposals since then are based on Kyoto Protocol’s role after 2012.
Examples of proposals and publications

Contraction & Convergence (2000)
Multi-Stage Approach (2004)
Hybrid Approach (2002)
Climate Marshall Plan (2002)
Technology Fund (2001)
Dynamic Target (2001)

Bodansky, Chou, et al.(2004)
South-North Dialogue (2004)
Höhne and Lahme (2005)
Kuik (2005)
CEPS Task Force Group (2005) IISD (2005)

BASIC Project (2006)
Policy INDABA (2006)
CCAP sectoral approach (2006)
IEA/OECD (2006)
MATCH Project (2006)
WRI (2006)
Assessment Wide divergence of views existed in this period. Many of major proposals today are based on literature published in this period. Researchers based in the EU and in the US had different views on this issue in this period. Some made comparison of proposals by using economic models to quantify each proposal, while others started deepening discussions on this issue by categorizing proposals into various elements such as “emissions trading”, “technology”, etc. As Kyoto Protocol entered into force, it became an underlying condition that two institutions (UNFCCC and KP) existed in a parallel manner, and that any new proposals needed to take into account such procedural reality.

Towards Asian Climate Change Mitigation

We provide training workshops and manuals for Asian researchers to learn how to use models that are developed by our research team. Our partner researchers throughout Asia use the models to analyze the effectiveness of climate change mitigation strategies in their countries. For example, we analyzed the target of improving energy intensity (i.e. energy consumption per GDP) by 20% between 2005 and 2010 proposed by the Chinese Government. Through our research, we found that if the GDP growth rate remains high, even if highly energy efficient technologies are introduced, China will only be able to achieve a 12.3% improvement by 2010, so it will be necessary to develop new technologies or adopt new policy combinations to meet the target.

Energy Intensity in China
Energy Intensity in China
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