Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios


A number of GHG emissions scenarios have been published for the purpose of analyzing the effects of global warming and mitigation policies. These emissions scenarios vary according to methodologies of the studies and policy requirements. It is therefore important to organize the available information, analyze the differences among the various scenarios, and examine the range of results and their reliability. For the purpose of providing common information to researchers and policy makers throughout the world, we have developed a database for the past IPCC reports, such as SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), TAR (Third Assessment Report) and AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report).

Usage of the database of the simple edition

This database is designed by using Microsoft(R) Access2003 and it is possible for anyone to retrieve the compiled data as required. In order to use the graphic function in this database, you also need Microsoft(R) Excel2003. In addition, Adobe Acrobat Reader is required to read the operating manual.

The database of the simple edition, that includes only major indices such as GDP, Population, CO2, etc., can be downloaded from the following URL:

The following indices are available on the database of the simple edition.

Basic Data :
GDP, Population
Cost :
Carbon price
GHG Gas :
CO2, CH4, N2O
Energy :
Primary Energy, Final Energy
Impact :
Temperature Rise, Sea Level Rise
The data in this database is open to the public and it is not for commercial use. Therefore, whenever you utilize the data in whole or in part supplied by this database and write journals or reports, please clearly express an acknowledgement to the authors of the original scenarios in the database and the CGER-NIES in reference or acknowledgement, concerning the supplied data.
Please go to the end of this website if you require all of data collected in this research project. The database of the complete edition is also available.
Some errors in the database were observed as certain data was included without permission from the author. Kindly consider the database now available on this website as the revised one. The report on this database :CGER D038-2006 has also been revised. The report can be downloaded at here.

Outline of contents

This database includes scenarios of the past IPCC reports, such as SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), TAR (Third Assessment Report) and AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report) as well as scenarios not related to IPCC reports.

Each piece of scenario information includes data on authors, reference, model type, scenario type, regional aggregation, variables and other related information. Data are stored in five-year increments from 1985 up to 2100.

The scenarios in the database were collected from more than 1,000 different literature sources and from other scenario-evaluation sources, such as the International Energy Workshop Poll, the Energy Modeling Forum, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, as well as directly from individual researcher.

Startup Display

screenshot: Startup Display

Data Selection

Data can be selected with "Data Selection Wizard".

screenshot: Data Selection Wizard

Selected data is displayed in the table below. The selected data can be output to external files.

screenshot: Selected Data by Data Selection Wizard

Source and Scenario Information

Basic information of each literature source is displayed, such as model name, published year, research institute, authors, scenario types, target regions.

screenshot: Source and Scenario Information


With the pivot table, you can make graphs of selected data. (Example) Total CO2 Emission

graph: Total CO2 Emission

Data Analysis

By using the selected data, characteristics of scenarios from different literature sources can be analyzed. The following figure shows an example analysis: relationship of the cumulative CO2 emissions (from 2000 to 2100) and the transitions of energy intensity.

figure: Data Analysis

Database of the complete edition

The database of the simple edition shown above includes only major indices. If you require all of data collected in this research project, including data such as NO2, SO2, fluorocarbons and so on, the database of the complete edition is also available from the following URL: