Headline: Record high in global fossil CO₂ emissions set for 2023

• Global emissions from fossil use are projected to rise 1.1% in 2023 (range 0.0% to 2.1%), reaching 36.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂), with rises expected in all fuel types (coal, oil, natural gas). This brings fossil CO₂ emissions to a record high, and 1.4% above the 2019 preCOVID-19 levels. Emissions are declining in 26 countries, representing 28% of global emissions, and emissions growth is slowing in other countries; importantly, these efforts remain insufficient to reverse the growth in global fossil fuel emissions.
• Global CO₂ emissions from land-use change are projected to be 4.1 GtCO₂ in 2023, continuing a small but uncertain decline over the past two decades. Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions from permanent forest loss through deforestation remain too high to be offset by anthropogenic CO₂ removals from reforestation and afforestation.
• Growth in total CO₂ emissions – the sum of fossil and land-use change emissions – has substantially slowed down over the past decade, with a small growth in fossil emissions closely matching a small but uncertain decline in land-use change emissions. Total emissions are projected to be 40.9 GtCO₂ in 2023. Continued CO₂ emissions lead to a further increase of CO₂ in the atmosphere and continued global warming.
• If current CO₂ emissions levels persist, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance to limit warming to 1.5°C could be exceeded in 7 years, and in 15 years for 1.7°C. Returning global temperatures below these thresholds after they have been crossed would require a massive scale-up of carbon dioxide removal after global net zero emission has been reached.
• The atmospheric CO₂ level is projected to average 419.3 ppm in 2023, 51% above pre-industrial levels. The land and ocean CO₂ sinks continue to take up around half of the CO₂ emissions, despite the negative impact of climate change on the sinks.

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